Welcome to September! We are 5 months into Primary League Baseball’s 2023 season, which means it is all coming right down to the cord because the postseason temporarily approaches.
Which of the present contenders will probably be headed to the playoffs come October? Which groups may have narrowly overlooked the reduce? How will the department races form up? Who will succeed in the Fall Vintage? Who’re the favorites to win the MVP and Cy Younger awards? On the finish of his historical season for the Los Angeles Angels, will Shohei Ohtani win his moment MVP and end with probably the most house runs within the majors? And what else might occur down the stretch?
To speak about what the general month of the common season may deliver, we requested a panel of 17 ESPN baseball professionals one of the most sport’s largest questions, overlaying September and past. We additionally requested a lot of them to provide an explanation for their solutions — specifically those that went in opposition to the grain.
Beneath, you’ll be able to in finding our selections for the postseason, primary awards and extra, together with a couple of sudden solutions and a few daring predictions about what is subsequent.
Who will end with the most productive file in baseball?
Atlanta Braves: 16
Baltimore Orioles: 1
You have been the one voter not to pick out the Braves. How do you suppose the Orioles will do it? It is as a lot wishful pondering as the rest, since this crew has been such a lot a laugh all 12 months, however not like the Braves, the Orioles NEED those wins to protected their first American League East name since 2014. That 12 months additionally occurs to be the closing time they entered September in first position, and they have already matched closing 12 months’s win overall of 83. The Braves are completely a greater baseball crew, however with the best way the agenda shakes out, we might be having a look at some actual Orioles magic at Camden Yards to near out 2023. — Clinton Yates
Who would be the No. 1 seed within the Nationwide League: the Braves or Dodgers?
Atlanta Braves: 17
Los Angeles Dodgers: 0
Now not a unmarried individual picked the Dodgers. Why are the Braves the overpowering favourite? The Braves are overwhelming favorites for a similar reason why Braves fanatics consider Ronald Acuna Jr. will have to be the overpowering favourite for the NL MVP award: consistency. From the start of the season to now, they have been a phenomenal baseball crew, and as magnificent because the Dodgers’ 24-5 August will have been, the Braves went 21-8 and in fact had a greater run differential than Los Angeles. Those are obviously the 2 splendid groups within the NL. They could be the 2 splendid groups in baseball. However up to the Dodgers have attempted to take the mantle, the Braves have completed not anything to offer it up. — Jeff Passan
Will the New York Yankees end with a shedding file?
Sure: 16
No: 1
Everybody turns out somewhat positive the Yankees will end underneath .500, however you suppose they are going to stay their 30-year streak of consecutive profitable seasons alive. How come? Mythical supervisor Davey Johnson all the time advocated for having two to 3 newcomers on each and every crew as a result of the power they undergo, and within the Yankees’ case, you’ll instantly see this. The addition of Jasson Dominguez, Austin Wells and others offers them a recent really feel — and it is not as though the Yankees are only a dangerous crew. Aaron Pass judgement on may hit 40 homers in an injury-plagued season, Gerrit Cole is the Cy Younger front-runner, and they have got a powerful bullpen. In 2016, they have been a .500 crew on the business closing date — swapping Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller whilst turning to newcomers like Pass judgement on and Gary Sanchez — they usually completed neatly. I believe they are going to do this this 12 months. — Buster Olney
The 2023 AL and NL MVPs will probably be … ?
AL
Shohei Ohtani: 17
NL
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 9
Mookie Betts: 7
Freddie Freeman: 1
Ohtani used to be unanimous amongst our electorate; what makes him a standout within the MVP race? The very last thing Ohtani had to win his moment AL MVP used to be the sympathy vote, however right here we’re. The Angels’ extraordinary season — simply whilst you concept they could not discover a other technique to disappoint and confound, they did — and Ohtani’s elbow harm have forged him in a Shakespearean gentle. He’s via a ways probably the most precious participant in baseball, and alongside the best way he has as soon as and for all shredded the concept that a participant’s value is contingent on his crew’s luck. — Tim Keown
Why does Acuna deserve MVP? I am a numbers man, and whilst this MVP race has 3 superb applicants, Acuna’s numbers are merely historical and unimaginable to put out of your mind, and that’s the reason past simply being the primary 30/60 participant. He has began each and every unmarried Braves sport out of the leadoff spot, with those paces:
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147 runs: As opposed to Ted Williams in 1949 and Jeff Bagwell in 2000, this hasn’t been completed since International Battle II.
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75 stolen bases: As opposed to Jose Reyes in 2007, this hasn’t been completed since earlier than the 1994 strike.
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219 hits: This hasn’t been completed since Jose Altuve in 2014 and can be best the 9th example this century.
Acuna could also be pacing for 37 homers, and whilst all of us communicate in regards to the Luis Arraez-Freddie Freeman potential batting name race, Acuna could be very a lot additionally in that blend. It is going to be difficult for electorate to forget about the ones statistical accomplishments. — Tristan Cockcroft
Acuna used to be the longtime favourite to win MVP. Why do you suppose Betts can overtake him? I will say this off the highest: I do not need any qualms with anyone balloting for Acuna. It is that shut. And I do not believe WAR will have to ever be the end-all, be-all, without reference to the model. However Betts’ 7.8 WAR originally of September used to be a just right bit upper than Acuna’s 6.7 WAR. Acuna has been dinged most commonly via his protection, however few would make the case that he’s in fact a legal responsibility on protection. In truth, maximum would believe him a dynamic appropriate fielder, without reference to what the metrics display.
Acuna will get the threshold in baserunning, a manufactured from him achieving the ridiculous 60-steal milestone earlier than the tip of August, however Betts has been a precious baserunner in his personal appropriate. Offensively, in fact, it is in point of fact shut too. However to me, Betts’ talent to additionally play each moment base and shortstop — and play it neatly, I may upload — offers him a slight edge in a head-to-head matchup that incessantly makes it really feel as though we are splitting hairs. His versatility has additionally allowed the Dodgers to place in combination a a lot better lineup in opposition to right-handed pitching. — Alden Gonzalez
The Cy Youngs will move to … ?
AL
Gerrit Cole: 13
Kevin Gausman: 3
Luis Castillo: 1
NL
Spencer Strider: 6
Blake Snell: 5
Justin Steele: 4
Zac Gallen: 2
What makes you suppose Gausman can beat out Cole for the award? In a little of a down AL Cy Younger race, I’ve Gausman with a slight lead over Cole. Gausman leads the AL in strikeouts, has an similar stroll charge to Cole and has made simply two fewer begins. If the Jays can get into the playoffs with sturdy performances from Gausman whilst the Yankees fade right into a tumultuous offseason, I believe Gausman will win the award. — Kiley McDaniel
There does not appear to be a transparent consensus for an NL favourite, with Strider, Snell and Steele all vying for Cy Younger. Make the case for Steele. Like MVP, there must be a component of crew price to the Cy Younger award. That is the place Steele enters. The Cubs can be a moment tier squad with out him, and there is not any debating it. He is the one pitcher at the Cubs who qualifies for the ERA name — accidents, ineffectiveness and adolescence have plagued the remainder of the rotation — and he is been that stalwart each and every playoff contender wishes. The one time he did not pitch no less than 5 innings this season is across the time he went at the injured record again in early June. It used to be a brief stint as he picked up the place he left off, going 9-1 with a 2.72 ERA since that minor elbow ailment. Since June, the crew has long gone 13-1 with him at the mound.
As for league-wide numbers, Steele’s 2.69 ERA ranks moment within the NL at the back of Snell, who is on a shedding crew. Steele additionally ranks first in ERA+ and fewest house runs given up according to 9 innings pitched at a measly 0.7. He is given up simply 11 lengthy balls all season. His first All-Megastar look will have to be adopted via a Cy Younger award. — Jesse Rogers
Why is Strider your pick out for the NL? Wins and strikeouts don’t seem to be the whole thing, but if any person this present day in fact approaches 20 of the previous and 300 of the latter — and for baseball’s splendid crew — we understand. Strider would possibly not win the ERA name, however it is not like any person has a Bob Gibson-1968 ERA, both. I am going with Strider. — Eric Karabell
The 2023 International Collection matchup will probably be … ?
AL
Houston Astros: 8
Seattle Mariners: 3
Texas Rangers: 3
Minnesota Twins: 1
Toronto Blue Jays: 1
Tampa Bay Rays: 1
NL
Atlanta Braves: 12
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3
Philadelphia Phillies: 1
Milwaukee Brewers: 1
You’ve the Astros profitable the department, however the Mariners making the International Collection. Give an explanation for how Seattle will get there. That is all in line with fatigue and historical past. Contemporary historical past presentations that it is arduous to get to 3 immediately International Collection or even more difficult to copy, however that does not imply Houston will move down simply. The Astros have driven arduous of overdue to get right into a place to win the AL West, however ultimately the ones pitching accidents and mileage they have placed on their our bodies over the previous couple of years will catch as much as them.
That is the place a brand new, rising energy will fill the void — and the Mariners are that crew. They are brimming with self assurance after a put up All-Megastar destroy surge. Blended with the revel in won making the playoffs closing season, they are poised to head additional this time round. The important thing to all of it comes at the mound. The Mariners function 3 starters (Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert) within the most sensible 10 in ERA within the AL. No different crew could make that declare. Upload their superstar avid gamers — like Julio Rodriguez — appearing up in the second one part in a dramatic method and Seattle’s OPS has jumped from tenth to moment for the reason that destroy. The components are all there for a playoff run and an disenchanted within the ALCS regardless of who the M’s face. — Rogers
Maximum of our electorate have the Braves making the International Collection, however you selected the Phillies. Why? The Braves have probably the most clout. The Dodgers have probably the most superstar energy. However the Phillies have the roster splendid supplied to win October baseball video games with fewer deficiencies than both Atlanta or Los Angeles. Philadelphia sports activities a lineup that may generate runs without or with homering, a rotation that runs six dependable starters deep and a spitfire bullpen this is significantly deeper than it used to be a 12 months in the past. — Paul Hembekides
A Twins-Brewers International Collection?! Give an explanation for your self! I am calling this the “Scorching Chocolate” International Collection and, sure, it’s admittedly an overly lengthy shot. However given the unpredictable nature of this season on the whole, I am going with an not likely International Collection matchup. (I am additionally mindful that the Twins have misplaced an unfathomable 18 consecutive postseason video games going again to 2004. The use of immediately 50/50 odds for every sport, the percentages of the Twins shedding 18 immediately can be about 1 in 261,985. This simply way: They. Are. Due.)
There also are analytic causes to select each groups: particularly, beginning pitching. The Twins’ starters are close to the highest of the majors in lowest OPS allowed and strikeout charge. Sonny Grey and Pablo Lopez are an underrated 1-2 punch and Joe Ryan and Kenta Maeda are each averaging greater than 10 Okay’s according to 9. The Twins even have a probably dominant nearer in flamethrowing Jhoan Duran and his 103-mph fastball. They’re going to want any other reliever or two to step up, however it is a staff which may be on a roll in October — they only want to win that first sport.
The Brewers also are in a position to a wonder — even scary the Braves. Their rotation is most sensible 5 in lowest OPS allowed — and, take into account, that is with Brandon Woodruff lacking lots of the season. However he is again now, Freddy Peralta is one in all the most up to date starters within the majors (1.71 ERA over his previous seven begins with a .451 OPS allowed) and Corbin Burnes can wipe out any lineup on any given evening. And they have got a greater bullpen than the Twins, led via nearer Devin Williams and now that includes rookie Abner Uribe, who has averaged 99.5 mph together with his fastball. — David Schoenfield
Who will end with probably the most house runs within the majors?
Shohei Ohtani: 8
Matt Olson: 7
Pete Alonso: 1
Kyle Schwarber: 1
What makes you consider Ohtani will hit probably the most homers? The essence of the query for me is in point of fact “who’s the easier house run hitter presently?” for the reason that the margin between Ohtani and Olson is so slender. To me, Ohtani is the second-best house run hitter within the majors at the back of Pass judgement on, who is simply too a ways again to catch the leaders. So if Ohtani performs out the season, I believe he will win it and, but even so, if he isn’t pitching, he will be capable to focal point on that roughly particular person feat. The massive, blinking caveat to that is that he is injured. I am sticking with him if he performs to the tip of the season, but when he wishes Tommy John surgical procedure, it is in point of fact arduous to believe he will wait any other month to get that at the back of him. — Brad Doolittle
Olson is neck-and-neck with Ohtani. Why do you suppose he pulls forward? That is much less of venture for Olson being a awesome house run hitter than this is a guess in opposition to Ohtani’s well being and the pragmatic demanding situations it raises. Ohtani has a tear in his appropriate UCL. We have no idea the severity. What we do know is that it will necessitate Tommy John surgical procedure, and if that’s the final consequence, the earlier Ohtani undergoes it, the easier. Delaying till the tip of September no longer best may save you him from hitting to begin the 2024 season however stay him from pitching till after Opening Day in 2025. Perhaps Ohtani’s need to hit 50 house runs or make a run on the Triple Crown will stay him going till the tip, during which case Olson’s street is tough. However he will play each day, and till we all know the similar of Ohtani, we’re going to move with the certain(r) factor. — Passan
Who would be the wild-card groups within the NL?
Philadelphia Phillies: 17
Chicago Cubs: 16
San Francisco Giants: 8
Arizona Diamondbacks: 6
Cincinnati Reds: 2
Miami Marlins: 1
San Diego Padres: 1
The Phillies and Cubs have been our most-picked groups. Why do they appear to be wild-card locks? Within the Phillies’ case, it is easy: They’re loaded with achieved veterans, and with Trea Turner and Bryce Harper heating up, they might be the largest danger to the Braves’ NL preeminence. The Cubs appear to have two very cast characteristics — they in most cases catch the ball neatly, score within the most sensible 10 in almost about each and every complex defensive metric, they usually pitch successfully. And it is all the time value remembering that the wild-card races are by no means a combat of the most productive groups. The Cubs are a just right crew being chased via some relatively above reasonable groups. They’re hungry and would possibly not lose their edge. — Olney
Our electorate have been break up between Arizona and San Francisco for the general spot, and you’ve got each making it. What is your reasoning? Only a slump that the Giants and Diamondbacks will play a little higher than the Cubs in September. The Cubs will host those groups quickly, and the ones collection will probably be essential. It kind of feels not likely Marcus Stroman will probably be an element. As well as, the Cubs have to near at the street with the Braves and Brewers. That can be an issue. — Karabell
How do you suppose the Reds protected a wild-card berth? The Reds play force baseball they usually accomplish that with sheer athleticism and spry adolescence. They take me back to the fact of the best way the Guardians performed all the way through their playoff push in 2022 — with a undeniable innocence in being the youngest crew and a mixture of veteran self assurance. In 2023, the numbers display that the Reds like to run: They are first in MLB in stolen base makes an attempt according to sport. Even if they get stuck, they nonetheless power groups to be on their ft continuously. Pitchers, catchers, infielders and outfielders, beware! Even the opposing crew’s designated hitter is stressed gazing those guys continuously run. (This could also be a talent that might assist knock off the Brewers, who surrender rarely any baserunners.)
Upload to the combination that Hunter Greene is again, and earlier than he went down, he used to be quietly beginning to determine it out. In his closing 4 begins earlier than being positioned at the IL in June, he allowed 13 hits and struck out 31 batters in 23â innings for a 2.37 ERA. Love this crew’s ability. So a laugh to observe. — Doug Glanville
Will the Orioles or Rays win the AL East?
Baltimore Orioles: 14
Tampa Bay Rays: 3
Why are the Orioles the favourite to win the department? The Rays are charging, and the crew they’re pursuing, Baltimore, misplaced dominant nearer Felix Bautista, which is why the Orioles are going to carry on and win the AL East. They’re younger, hungry and neatly constructed, with the truest of grit. There is no different clarification for the way they are able to be the place they’re best two years after completing 39 video games out of fourth position. The Orioles are other. They do not give a rattling and have been kicked round for goodbye that now, they only defy the percentages. They’ll clinch the East at Oriole Park at the ultimate day of the season in opposition to Boston. Gunnar Henderson will give you the walk-off. — Tim Kurkjian
But, you picked the Rays. What makes you suppose they are able to do it? It is most definitely no longer cool to expect that the rest unfavorable may occur to the Orioles this season. They are baseball’s darlings, however they will in finding the general month of the season to be a grim slog to a wild-card spot. That is all new to the O’s, and the Rays have a stick-to-the-plan consistency that can win out finally. It is virtually cultish how the Rays can forget about the whole thing out of doors their very own room and bring together a roster that conforms to the plan. Baltimore is hanging in combination its personal identification, one that are supposed to win a couple of AL East titles, however that run begins subsequent 12 months. — Keown
Who will end on the backside of the NL East: the Mets or Nationals?
New York Mets: 12
Washington Nationals: 5
What makes you suppose Washington will fall again into the cellar? The Nats and Mets are in a digital tie presently for closing position within the NL East and I believe the Nats will finally end up with that name. Briefly, Washington’s crew presently is without doubt one of the worst in baseball — moment worst, in truth, in step with FanGraphs. When they are beginning in virtually the similar position, I will guess at the extra proficient Mets enjoying a little higher. — McDaniel
Who will win the AL West: the Astros, Rangers or Mariners?
Houston Astros: 10
Seattle Mariners: 4
Texas Rangers: 3
The Mariners recently take a seat atop the department, however you and our electorate nonetheless suppose the Astros will take the name. How come? We sports activities newshounds have quick reminiscences, however they don’t seem to be that quick. The Astros had been within the ALCS six immediately seasons, which is a really outstanding accomplishment. Clearly that streak will finish ultimately, possibly even a couple of weeks from now. However at this level, it could be silly to select in opposition to them except they have got clearly deteriorated right into a lesser crew. Possibly there have been some early indicators of fraying this season, however now Houston turns out located good and is even getting fitter the nearer we get to October. The Astros have to offer us a reason why to select in opposition to them — large accidents, evident common aging-out of core avid gamers, a department foe who has gotten too a ways forward of them. None of the ones issues are true presently. — Doolittle
But, you caught with Seattle. Why? As a result of I am an absolutely biased Seattle local who grew up going to video games within the Kingdome? Or as a result of they have been the most up to date crew within the AL? You select! Technically, I am predicting the Mariners, Astros, Rangers and Blue Jays all input the general day of the season with the similar file. I am going with a Seattle win over Texas at house whilst the Astros and Blue Jays additionally win, getting rid of the Rangers. Since Seattle has already clinched the season collection over Houston, that provides the Mariners the AL West name. — Schoenfield
Ahead of suffering in August, Texas spent lots of the season main the department. What makes you suppose they are able to nonetheless win it? The Rangers completed August with 10 losses in 13 video games, however their inconsistencies in fact date again even additional than that. They went 40-38 from the beginning of June to the tip of August, nowhere close to as dominant as they have been in April and Would possibly. Nonetheless, they nonetheless had a plus-42 run differential. And I nonetheless suppose they are relatively extra proficient than the Astros and Mariners, the latter of which used to be a .500 crew via its first 100 video games. The Rangers’ lineup is deep and will probably be even deeper when Josh Jung returns. Their rotation is in point of fact just right and will probably be even higher when Nathan Eovaldi rejoins it. Their bullpen, neatly, it is a drawback. However no one within the AL is best possible. The Rangers are the least imperfect. I’ve them profitable the pennant. — Gonzalez
Make one daring prediction in regards to the ultimate stretch
Within the American League …
Aaron Boone will probably be fired earlier than the playoffs get started. — Matt Marrone
The Mariners, Rangers, Astros and Blue Jays all input the general day of the season with the similar file — 4 groups for 3 spots. Seattle beats Texas and the Astros and Blue Jays each win, so the Rangers omit the playoffs (Mariners win the department since they gained the season collection over the Astros). — Schoenfield
The Rays lose their first playoff collection after profitable the AL East. — McDaniel
Within the Nationwide League …
San Diego will end with a profitable file. — Hembekides
I will do you one higher. The Padres will make the playoffs. — Gonzalez
The Phillies would be the wild-card entrant with the most productive likelihood to win the International Collection. — Olney
The Reds and Marlins input the general collection of the season tied for the closing wild-card spot within the NL. Miami sweeps the Pittsburgh Pirates whilst Cincinnati best wins two of 3 in opposition to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Marlins make the playoffs in a complete 162-game season for the primary time since 2003. — Liz Finny
There will probably be a three-way tie between the Giants, Reds and Diamondbacks for the general wild-card spot within the NL. — Kurkjian
As for particular person avid gamers …
Freddie Freeman wins the batting name within the NL. — Karabell
Now not best will Freeman win the NL batting name, he will additionally destroy Joe Medwick’s NL doubles file (64). — Doolittle
In fact, Freeman goes to win the triple slash crown, main in batting reasonable, on-base share and slugging. — Cockcroft
Edwin Diaz returns — and he runs onto the sphere whilst enjoying a trumpet! — Glanville
Pete Alonso will hit 50 house runs. — Rogers
Justin Steele will proceed his not likely adventure from obscurity (0-6 with 5.59 ERA in Double-A in 2019) to stardom via main the Cubs to a wild-card spot. — Keown
Oakland Athletics middle fielder Esteury Ruiz will catch Acuna in stolen bases. — Yates